国际能源署(IEA)：今年全球可再生能源新增装机容量预计将飙升至440吉瓦

由于欧盟对能源危机的反应，所有主要可再生能源市场都将出现强劲增长

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年6月3日报道，国际能源署(IEA)在本周的一份新报告中称，欧洲的能源危机、美国的《通胀削减法案》(IRA)以及亚洲绿色能源设施的持续强劲扩张，预计都将推动今年全球可再生能源产能增长达到有史以来的最高水平。

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IEA在其报告中称，今年全球可再生能源新增装机容量预计将飙升至440吉瓦，同比将增加107吉瓦，是有史以来最大的可再生能源新增装机容量增幅。今年新增的太阳能光伏发电(PV)将占可再生能源新增装机容量的三分之二。

IEA指出，由于欧盟对能源危机的反应、美国和印度的新激励措施以及亚洲可再生能源的持续增长，所有主要市场都将出现强劲增长。

IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔表示：“今年，全球电力系统将新增巨大数量的可再生电力——超过德国和西班牙的总发电量。”

比罗尔指出，今年新增装机容量是2019年疫情前新增可再生能源装机容量的两倍多。

“能源危机刺激了对大型发电厂和屋顶太阳能的需求。”他补充道。

IEA上周表示，今年全球对太阳能发电的投资将有史以来首次超过对石油生产的投资。

IEA预计今年全球能源总投资将达到2.8万亿美元，其中1.74万亿美元将用于清洁能源和技术，其余1.05万亿美元将用于化石燃料。

比罗尔说：“在化石燃料上每投资1美元，就有1.7美元投向清洁能源，5年前，这个比例是1比1。 ”

IEA在本周的《市场更新》报告中表示，到2024年底，太阳能和风能装机容量的飙升将使全球可再生能源装机容量累计超过4500吉瓦，相当于两大经济体的总发电量。

在美国，由于限制性贸易措施和供应链限制，去年美国风能和太阳能市场出现萎缩，今年这两种技术的年增量预计将增长约40%，太阳能光伏装置将达到历史最高水平。

IEA表示，《通胀削减法案》对美国可再生能源技术部署的影响将在2025年变得明显。IEA补充说：“目前的预测是基于现有的税收激励措施，而《通胀削减法案》将在2024年之后充分发挥作用，为2032年前的可再生能源项目提供前所未有的确定性。”

然而，IEA警告说，如果要实现目前对中长期和净零情景的预测，可再生能源的快速扩张带来了一系列挑战，需要克服这些挑战。

IEA表示，风能和太阳能光伏发电的扩张需要伴随着支持电网基础设施、灵活性投资和许可政策和市场规则。

报告称：“电网基础设施投资不足仍然是全球面临的一个挑战，不仅是对风能和太阳能光伏发电装机容量更快增长的挑战，也是对现有发电厂发电潜力最大化的挑战。”

由于可变的可再生能源(VRE)份额的增加，在许多市场中，风能和太阳能发电的份额正在上升。IEA表示，在主要电网基础设施投资和/或先进的市场设计和监管未能跟上可再生能源部署步伐的地区，可再生能源弃电的增加尤其明显。

可再生能源的成本正在下降，但还没有达到能源危机、供应链瓶颈和利率上升之前的水平。

尽管大宗商品价格不断下跌，但到2024年，新的公用事业规模的陆上风能和太阳能发电成本仍将比2020年的水平高出10%～15%。 随着利率的上升，开发商的融资成本也在增加。

IEA表示，今明两年，陆上风能和太阳能光伏的全球平均能源成本(ICOE)将有所下降，但仍将高于2020年。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA: Renewables Installations In 2023 Soar To Levels We’ve Never Seen

· IEA: new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts this year.

· All major markets are set to see strong expansion due to the EU response to the energy crisis.

The energy crisis in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, and the continued strong expansion of green energy installations in China are all expected to contribute to the biggest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity additions this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report this week.

Globally, new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts (GW) this year, up by 107 GW year-on-year and the largest increase in new capacity ever seen, the IEA said in its report. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are set to account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power capacity this year.

All major markets are set to see strong expansion due to the EU response to the energy crisis, the new incentives in the U.S. and India, and the continued surge, the agency noted.

“This year, the world is set to add a record-breaking amount of renewables to electricity systems – more than the total power capacity of Germany and Spain combined,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

The jump in installations this year is more than double the amount of renewable energy capacity added in the pre-Covid year 2019, Birol noted.

“The energy crisis has turbocharged demand for both large-scale plants & rooftop solar,” the IEA’s top executive added.

Investment in solar power generation is set to eclipse investment in oil production in 2023 for the first time ever, the IEA said last week.

For 2023, the IEA expects total investments in energy at $2.8 trillion, of which $1.74 trillion will go to clean energy and technologies and the remaining $1.05 trillion to fossil fuels.

“For every dollar invested in fossil fuels, about 1.7 dollars are now going into clean energy. Five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one,” Birol said.

Soaring installations of solar and wind power capacity will result in a cumulative world renewable capacity of over 4,500 GW at the end of 2024, equal to the total power capacity of the second economics and the United States combined, the IEA said in this week’s report Renewable Energy Market Update.

In the United States, where the wind and solar markets contracted last year due to restrictive trade measures and supply chain constraints, annual additions for both technologies are expected to increase by around 40% in 2023, and solar PV installations will set a new record.

The Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on renewable energy technology deployment in the U.S. will become evident in 2025, the IEA said.

“The current forecast is underpinned by existing tax incentives, while the Inflation Reduction Act will show its full effect after 2024, providing unprecedented certainty for renewable energy projects until 2032,” the agency added.

However, the IEA warned that the rapid expansion of renewables comes with a set of challenges that need to be overcome if current projections for the medium and long term and for a net-zero scenario are to be met.

The expansion of wind and solar PV needs to be accompanied by policies and market rules supporting grid infrastructure, flexibility investments, and permitting, according to the agency.

“Inadequate investment in grid infrastructure remains a challenge worldwide not only for faster growth in new wind and solar PV capacity, but also for maximising generation potential from existing power plants,” it said.

The share of curtailed wind and solar generation is rising in many markets as the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) increases. The increased renewable generation curtailment is particularly evident in areas where major grid infrastructure investments and/or advanced market design and regulation fail to keep pace with renewables deployment, the agency said.

Costs for renewables are on track to drop, but not as much as to reach the levels from before the energy crisis, supply-chain bottlenecks, and higher interest rates.

Electricity generation costs from new utility-scale onshore wind and solar are set to remain 10-15% above 2020 levels in 2024, despite the falling commodity prices. The financing costs for developers have increased along with the rise in interest rates.

The global average levelized costs of energy (LCOEs) for onshore wind and solar PV are set for some declines this year and next, but they will remain higher than in 2020, the IEA said.